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Ghana Elections: NDC favored to win, says Fitch Solutions
Accra, Ghana - A recent report by Fitch Solutions has reaffirmed its prediction that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will emerge victorious in Ghana's December 2024 general elections.
This marks the third time the forecasting agency has made this bold prediction.
According to Fitch, the ruling government is expected to increase expenditure in the lead-up to the elections to bolster its chances. This includes a 31% raise in public sector wages and tripled subsidies on petrol products, aligning with Ghana's historical trend of increased spending during election cycles.
The report forecasts an 8.5% growth in private consumption, contributing 7.2% to Ghana's economic growth.
However, Fitch warns of potential risks, including prolonged protests or violence, which could disrupt economic activity and reduce consumer confidence.
Additionally, the report highlights the potential impact of escalating Middle East conflicts on global oil prices, potentially triggering inflation and clouding Ghana's domestic demand outlook.
“We expect the government to boost expenditure leading up to the December 2024 general election to enhance its chances of securing victory. We remain of the view that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the election”, it disclosed in its latest Country Report on Ghana dated September 19, 2024,'' part of the report read.
“Indeed, in Q2 [quarter 2, 2024], the government raised public sector wages by 31.0% year-on-year in nominal terms and tripled subsidies on petrol products, a move that aligns with Ghana’s historical trend of higher spending during election cycles. This will boost household purchasing power and support consumer spending over second-half of 2024”.
“All told, we forecast that private consumption will grow by 8.5% in 2024 and add 7.2pp to headline economic growth”.
“In September 2024, the opposition National Democratic Congress staged nationwide protests alleging irregularities in the voter roll ahead of the December election. While our core view remains that the vote will be conducted peacefully, consistent with Ghana's recent democratic history, prolonged protests or the outbreak of large-scale violence would disrupt commercial activities and reduce consumer and business confidence, ultimately leading to lower economic growth than we currently forecast”, it added.
Source: Lead News Online
