NPP’s decline in Ashanti Region: Voter apathy or shift in loyalty? – Samuel Ackom writes

The Ashanti Region has long been regarded as the Stronghold of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), one of the leading political parties in Ghana.

Geographically, the Region shares boundaries with five of Ghana’s sixteen political regions: Bono and Bono East to the north, the Eastern Region to the east, the Central Region to the south, and the Western Region to the southwest.

Covering a total land area of 24,389 square kilometres, the region represents 10.2 percent of Ghana’s total land area and is predominantly home to the Akan people, specifically the Asante.

Historically, the region has delivered significant votes for the NPP. In the 2020 elections, the party secured 1,795,824 votes, representing 74.14% of the total votes cast in the region, while the NDC garnered 653,149 votes.

Similarly, in 2016, which marked President Akufo-Addo’s initial victory, the NPP obtained 1,640,694 votes, representing 75.98%, compared to the NDC’s 503,497 votes (23.32%). Even in 2012, when the NPP lost the presidential race to the NDC’s John Mahama, the party still managed to secure 1,531,152 votes (70.86%) against the NDC’s 612,616 votes (28.35%).

This dominance made the Ashanti Region a key pillar in the NPP’s strategy to seek re-election and extend its governance beyond two terms, and this was reflected in the considerable time, resources, and energy devoted by the party’s flagbearer and campaign team to the region.

 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOME IN ASHANTI REGION

The 2024 general election in Ghana recorded 3,295,275 registered voters in the Ashanti Region, distributed across 47 constituencies. Of this number, 2,136,719 cast their ballots, with 2,091,142 valid votes counted.

At the end of the polls, the NPP’s flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, secured 1,366,805 votes, representing 65.36%. The NDC’s flagbearer, John Mahama, garnered 699,776 votes, representing 33.46%. The NPP’s victory margin over the NDC stood at 667,029 votes, equating to 31.90%.

Breaking the results down by constituencies, the NPP emerged victorious in 38 out of 47 constituencies. These include Adansi Asokwa, Afigya Kwabre North and South, Afigya Sekyere East, Asante Akim Central, North, and South, Asokwa, Atwima Kwanwoma, Atwima Mponua, Atwima Nwabiagya North and South, Bantama, Bekwai, Bosome Freho, Bosomtwe, Effiduase/Asokore, Ejisu, Fomena, Juaben, Kumawu, Kwabre East, Kwadaso, Mampong, Manhyia North and South, Manso Adubia, Manso Nkwanta, Nhyiaeso, Nsuta/Kwamang/Beposo, Obuasi East and West, Odotobiri, Offinso South, Oforikrom, Old Tafo, Suame, and Subin.

The NDC, on the other hand, won in 8 constituencies: Ahafo Ano South East, Ahafo Ano South West, Akrofuom, Asawase, Ejura Sekyedumase, New Edubiase, Offinso North, and Sekyere Afram Plains.

Ahafo Ano North Constituency is as of the time of writing this article under contention

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN: ANALYSIS ON PRESIDENTIAL OUTCOME

Historically, the NDC has struggled to secure over 30% of votes in the Ashanti Region, but in 2024, the party made a significant leap, securing 33.46%. This marks the best performance by the NDC in the region, surpassing Jerry Rawlings’ 32.79% in 1996. John Mahama, based on the 2024 figures, holds the record for the highest percentage secured by an NDC candidate in the Ashanti Region.

The 2024 results also reveal that, for the first time, the NDC won more than five constituencies in the Ashanti Region in a presidential election, claiming nine constituencies. Previously, the NDC’s best performance in terms of constituencies was in 2008, when it won five.

For the NPP, the 2024 elections marked a significant decline in voter support in its stronghold. Votes in the Ashanti Region dropped from 1.7 million in 2020 to 1.3 million in 2024—a dip of 400,000 votes. This is the party’s lowest performance in the Ashanti Region under the Fourth Republic.

The data above reveals a pattern of fluctuating support. In 1996, led by John Agyekum Kufuor, the NPP secured 65.80%. In 2000, Kufuor increased this to 75%, achieving 79.89% in the runoff—the party’s highest performance to date. In 2004, Kufuor’s votes dipped slightly to 74.61%. In 2008, Nana Akufo-Addo secured 72.40%, increasing to 74.94% in the runoff.

In 2012, Nana Akufo-Addo garnered 70.86%, a dip from his previous performance. In 2016, Nana Akufo-Addo achieved 75.98%, the second-highest NPP performance after Kufuor’s 2000 runoff. In 2020, Akufo-Addo secured 72.79%. However, in 2024, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP’s flagbearer, recorded just 65.36%, the lowest in the party’s history under the Fourth Republic.

This decline highlights a historic challenge for the NPP in maintaining its dominance in its Stronghold region.

WHAT DO THE NUMBERS MEAN: ANALYSIS ON PARLIAMENTARY OUTCOME

At the end of polls, the NPP secured 37 out of the 47 parliamentary seats in the Ashanti Region, while the NDC won 8 seats, with 1 seat (Ahafo Ano North) still under contention and yet to be decided. This result indicates that the NPP has lost eight seats to the NDC compared to its performance in 2020.

Historically, the NDC had not won more than 4 seats in the Ashanti Region since 2000 until breaking that trend in 2024 by securing 8 seats. Notably, the NDC won the Adansi Asokwa parliamentary seat for the first time since 2000, claimed Obuasi East for the first time since its creation in 2012, and captured Ahafo Ano South East, also for the first time since 2012. Additionally, the NDC won the Akrofuom seat for the first time since 2000.

VOTER APATHY IN ASHANTI REGION: CAUSE OF NPP’S DEFEAT?

After the elections, the NPP has been reflecting on its defeat, with some communicators, including Dennis Miracles Aboagye, the Spokesperson for the Bawumia Campaign Team, attributing the loss to voter apathy in the Ashanti Region. But is this really the case, and what do the numbers reveal?

In the 2020 Presidential elections, the Ashanti Region had a voter population of 3,020,141. The NPP secured 1,795,824 votes, representing 72.79 percent, while the NDC garnered 653,149 votes, representing 26.47 percent.

In the 2024 Presidential elections, the voter population in the region increased to 3,295,275 registered voters. The NPP obtained 1,366,805 votes, representing 65.36 percent, while John Mahama of the NDC polled 699,776 votes, representing 33.46 percent. The difference in total votes between the NPP and NDC in 2020 and 2024 stands at 382,391 votes.

The data clearly underscores voter apathy as a major contributing factor in the NPP’s defeat.

For such a huge number of voters in the Ashanti Region not to vote, is a symbol of how dissatisfied they were with how governance of their party had gone. They didn’t want to vote for any other party hence abstained from voting.

A comprehensive audit is critical to uncover why the party’s stronghold failed to deliver as expected.

The 2024 General Elections have reshaped Ghana’s electoral narrative, especially in the Ashanti Region. Political parties must adapt quickly to these shifting dynamics to stay competitive in future elections.

Source: Samuel Ackom

The Writer is a Broadcast Journalist with Citi 97.3FM and Channel One TV