2024 elections set to end in a run-off, presidency survey predicts
As the December 7 polls approach, a recent survey conducted by the office of the president indicates a likely run-off in the upcoming presidential elections. The report reveals that neither the NDC nor the NPP is projected to secure an outright majority in the first round.
The survey, which included views from over 25,000 voters across 276 constituencies, showed that 80% of participants have already decided which party they will support.
The survey was led by Dr Isaac Owusu, the Director of Research at the Presidency and a former lecturer at the University of Ghana's Political Science Department. Dr Owusu has conducted several such reports ahead of the general elections.
The survey's findings suggest a split in voter preference, with 46.3% of respondents prepared to vote for the NDC and the same percentage for the NPP, indicating that neither party is likely to achieve a clear majority.
Additionally, the survey identifies a segment of undecided voters (9%) who have chosen not to participate, primarily due to dissatisfaction with politicians (77%). A notable 7% cited the Election Day as a Holy Sabbath day, particularly in the Western (16.6%), Bono (15.1%), Ahafo (11.2%), Western North (10.6%), and Ashanti (9%) regions.
Despite this segment, the strong alignment and high decision rate among the majority of voters suggest their impact may not be sufficient to avoid a run-off.
The report also highlights that former President Mahama currently has higher visibility in the constituencies compared to Vice President Bawumia.
A further breakdown shows that NPP’s Bawumia is popular among Christian voters while the NDC’s Mahama is popular amongst Muslim voters including the Zongos.
Other critical findings in the report include the fact that; 60% of voters base their choices on party manifestos, scandals, and poor decisions among government officials hinder re-election chances, the elite class sees no viable alternatives from the NDC in terms of change in government and that the NPP appeals to the middle class due to a lack of other options from the NDC.
Source : Anthony Manu
