Terrorism, Counter-Terrorism And The ECOWAS Sub-Regional Refugee Crisis

The 1951 Refugee Convention defines a refugee as a person who “owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of [their] nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail [themselves] of the protection of that country”, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

The UNHCR, however, points out that “regional legal instruments in Africa and the Americas have broadened this definition by including people who are compelled to leave their country because of ‘external aggression, occupation, foreign domination, internal conflicts, massive violation of human rights or events seriously disturbing public order.’”

World Refugee Crisis

Currently, the UNHCR reports that there are 43.4 million refugees globally. The UN Refugee Agency is mandated to protect 31.6 million refugees as well as 5.8 million other people in need of international protection, its website notes, pointing out: “A further 6 million Palestine refugees are supported by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which was set up in 1949 to care for displaced Palestinians.”

Forty per cent of the 43.4 million world refugees, the UNHCR computes, are documented to be children. It says the majority of refugees want to return home once it is safe to do so, adding that in 2023, nearly 1.1 million were able to go back to their home countries.

Africa’s refugee crisis – the numbers and causes

In Africa, the UNCHR says, “Sub-Sahara Africa hosts more than 26 per cent (over 18 million) of the world’s refugees,” noting that the number of refugees has soared over the years, partly due to the ongoing crises in Central Africa Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan and Burundi.

The UN Refugee Agency notes that the countries with the highest refugee burdens are: Ethiopia (659,000) Kenya (551,000), Chad (453,000), Uganda (386,000), Cameroon (264,000) and South Sudan (248,000).

The UNHCR said at first, Africa’s refugee situation was limited to the Horn of Africa, but regrets that more camps are now springing up in all other sub-regions, especially in West and Southern Africa.

Apart from the refugees, Africa also hosts a swathe of internally displaced persons (IDPs). The UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner quotes the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, as defining internally displaced persons (IDPs) as: “Persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalised violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised border.”

The major causes of internal displacement include inter-ethnic and inter-religious conflicts and communal land disputes, which are aggravated by environmental disasters including flooding, soil erosion, and droughts (UNHCR).  The UN Refugee Agency notes that globally, “Africa has the largest number of IDPs who outnumber refugees 5:1. For instance, at the end of 2013 there were 12.5 million IDPs in the 21 sub-Saharan countries that the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre monitors, a figure more than a third of the global total.”

Significantly, the UN body said Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan had the largest population of IDPs in Africa, pointing out: “In 2014, Nigeria topped African countries with 3.3 million IDPs, about a third of IDPs in Africa and 10 per cent of global IDPs, aggravated largely by the Boko Haram.” The challenge of insurgency, the UN body noted, persists in Mali, Nigeria, Kenya, Somalia and neighbouring countries in Western Africa and Eastern Africa. Though weakened, the UNHCR says Boko Haram “continues to kill, maim and displace populations not only in Nigeria but also in neighbouring Cameroon and Chad. One consequence is the likely increase in the number of internally displaced persons and a strain on infrastructure to provide for the needs of vulnerable groups, especially women and children,” it warned.

The West African Situation

The UN Refugee Agency warns that political instability and armed conflict in West and Central Africa are expected to drive the number of forcibly displaced and stateless people up by 9% to 13.6 million in 2024. That figure, it projected, would include 8.4 million internally displaced persons, stressing that “new conflicts, increased competition over resources due to the effects of climate change, poverty, and inflation are increasing humanitarian needs.”

It says the region has “endured protracted displacement and long-standing conflicts in Chad and around the Lake Chad Basin, and the new crisis in Sudan has driven more refugees into Chad and the Central African Republic. Political instability and worsening insecurity in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have led to new arrivals in the coastal countries of Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo.”

An ECOWAS press release published by Reliefweb on 25 October 2023, with the headline, ‘ECOWAS and UNHCR sign an agreement to strengthen refugees’ protection and address internal displacements in West Africa,’ also crunched up more numbers for the situation in the West African sub-region. “Violent conflicts, disasters and insecurity in several countries in West Africa continue to force people to flee their homes within the sub-region and beyond,” the statement mentioned, calculating: “There are currently 6,976,470 forcibly displaced [people] by conflicts and violence, and stateless persons in the ECOWAS sub-region, including 6,352,346 IDPs and 624,124 refugees and asylum-seekers.”

The press statement said: “Nigeria and Burkina Faso host the highest displaced populations with 3,578,996 and 2,062,534 individuals respectively. Niger hosts the highest refugee population by far, with 325,419 individuals.”

So, essentially, conflicts, terrorism and counter-terrorism, civil unrest, environmental disasters, oppressive regimes and the human rights abuses that accompany juntas and undemocratic authoritarian governments conspire to fuel the refugee situation in the ECOWAS region.

How West African/Sahelian Terrorism And Counter-Terrorism Are Impacting Refugee Situation In Africa

On 25 July 2023, the Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Mr Leonardo Santos Simaõ, speaking to the 15-member Security Council for the first time since assuming office, warned that the terrorism situation in West Africa and the Sahel had deteriorated against a backdrop of shrinking civic and political space. He emphasised that the crisis in the Sahel required tangible and long-term support to stamp out the scourge of terrorism and address the region’s burgeoning humanitarian crisis, expressing particular concern for the 6.3 million displaced persons across the Sahel region.

Also, Mr Omar Alieu Touray, President of the Economic Community of West African States Commission, briefed the Council and reported that from 1 January to 30 June 2023, the region recorded 1,814 incidents of terrorist attacks, which resulted in 4,593 fatalities, noting that by the end of April 2023, half a million refugees were recorded in the region. He said nearly 30 million people needed food assistance at the time, and warned that without adequate response, the number would increase to 42 million by the end of August that year, also adding:  “This is just a snippet of the horrendous impact of insecurity in West Africa.”

In the Abstract of a 2022 policy brief on ‘Mass Displacement and Violent Extremism in the Sahel: A Vicious Circle?’, the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) notes: “With the Sahel crisis entering its tenth year, the indiscriminate violence faced by local populations trapped between various al-Qaeda and Islamic State-affiliated organisations, other non-state armed groups, and counter-terrorism operations, is forcing ever-growing numbers of civilians to flee, resulting in over 2.8 million people being forcibly displaced across Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Frequently representing the only coping strategy available, displacement, however, exposes internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees to even more precarious situations, while also raising important challenges for their host communities.”

Terrorist activities by Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) are significant drivers of displacement in the Sahel. These groups conduct violent attacks, including bombings, kidnappings, and massacres, which force people to flee their homes in search of safety. (International Crisis Group (2020). The Central Sahel: Scene of New Climate Wars?)

On the other hand, counter-terrorism operations conducted by national armies, regional forces (such as the G5 Sahel Joint Force), and international actors (including French Operation Barkhane and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, MINUSMA) have also been documented to contribute to the displacement. Military operations, while aimed at combating terrorism, have led to civilian casualties and destruction of property, causing additional displacement. (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (2020). Displacement in the Sahel region.)

Closely related to that, both terrorist groups and security forces have been implicated in human rights violations. Terrorist groups engage in atrocities such as killings, forced recruitment, and sexual violence. Meanwhile, counter-terrorism operations sometimes result in extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and torture, exacerbating the suffering of civilians and leading to further displacement. (Human Rights Watch (2021). Mali: Security Forces Allegedly Execute 34 Suspected Militants.)

The presence of terrorist groups and ongoing counter-terrorism operations, in addition, create significant challenges for humanitarian access and protection. Aid organisations often face difficulties in reaching affected populations due to security risks, leading to inadequate assistance for displaced persons and increased vulnerability. (Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) (2020). Humanitarian Needs Overview: Sahel Crisis.).

The insecurity caused by terrorism and counter-terrorism operations severely impacts social structures and economic activities in the Sahel. Displacement disrupts livelihoods, education, and healthcare services, leading to long-term socio-economic challenges for displaced populations and host communities (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2019). Addressing the impact of the Libya crisis on the Sahel region.)

The insecurity in the Sahel has regional implications, with violence and displacement spilling over into neighbouring countries. This regional instability complicates efforts to manage the refugee crisis, as countries with limited resources struggle to support both their citizens and incoming refugees. (African Union (AU) (2020). Peace and Security Council Report.)

Security Impact Of Refugee Influx On Host Countries

The Kenya government, at a point in time, according to the UNHCR, served notice of its intention to shut down the Dabaab camp, the largest refugee camp in the world, accusing it of harbouring Islamic fundamental fighters who murdered about 147 students in neighbouring Garissa University in April 2015. In South Sudan also, the international donor community seems to be weary of assisting refugees as a result of the post-independence confrontations between local leaders (UNHCR).

These demonstrate the security impact of the refugee situation in Africa. Refugee camps, due to their dense population and unplanned nature, become hideouts and safe havens for human traffickers, fraudsters, prostitutes, rapists, paedophiles, armed robbers, contract killers, drug lords, gangsters, terrorists, lone wolves, sleeper cells, coup plotters, mercenaries and all manner of people with diabolical intentions.

The Buduburam camp, situated on the peripheries of Ghana’s national capital, Accra, in a district called Gomoa in the Central Region, is a typical example. It has been home to more than 12,000 Liberian refugees for more than three decades since it was set up by the UNHCR in 1990. The camp, over the years, has become a melting pot of everything criminal that can be imagined under the sun. At the mention of Buduburam or Kasoa, the first thing that pops into the minds of most Ghanaians, is a disturbing cloud of ritual murders, fraud, prostitution, land-guardism, armed robbery, hard drugs, rowdiness, and insecurity. As a result of the spiking crime rate in that part of Ghana, the country’s security apparatus saw it fit and necessary to carve out a whole new regional police command, Central East, just to handle the deteriorating security situation in that part of the country.

While the majority of the refugees may be genuinely displaced, there could be extremists and fundamentalists hiding among them who could serve as spies on the host country for their mother extremist groups. Refugee camps could also serve as a place of rendezvous or respite for fleeing terrorists and their operations. The camp could even become a nucleus for forming new arms of existing extremist groups.

With time, the camps may become a recruitment zone for extremists and terrorists. Gradually, the precarious insecurity prevailing in the refugees’ country of origin could seep into the host country through the camps. The host country, as a result, could be caught up in situations that had nothing whatsoever to do with its territory, politics, or economy.

Also, the arrival of large numbers of refugees can put pressure on law enforcement and security services, requiring additional resources and coordination to manage the situation effectively. This includes monitoring refugee camps, preventing human trafficking, and ensuring overall public safety. (UNHCR (2016). Global trends: Forced displacement in 2015.)

Economic Impact Of Refugee Influx On Host Countries

According to Paolo Verme, Lead Economist, Manager of the Research Programme on Forced Displacement and Head of Research and Impact Evaluations in the Fragility, Conflict and Violence group of the World Bank, from an economic perspective, the influx of refugees should be expected “to cause the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and household incomes of the host country to grow.” In a 28th March 2023 publication titled: ‘Theory and evidence on the impact of refugees on host communities,’ on the World Bank’s website, Verme said: “In the short-term, inhabited areas that are suddenly populated with refugees, such as refugee camps, experience GDP growth because the refugees receive aid and consume goods and services in a place that previously had no income or consumption. In already-populated areas, like urban areas, GDP will also grow as income and consumption grow with the arrival of the new population. This is simply a statistical outcome resulting from the fact that there are more people (refugees and aid workers) and more money (international aid and government spending) in a particular geographical area.”

In the medium term, Verme continued: “We should also see local household incomes grow. With the population increase and the aid and government spending, local consumption will rise, leading to a boost in local production and sales of goods and services. The presence of refugees in the labour market could potentially reduce labour costs for employers, particularly if they work informally. As a result, local landlords, entrepreneurs, producers, and suppliers of goods and services are likely to experience a surge in income, which can lead to an expansion of their businesses and an overall growth in household income. In economic terms, these are referred to as ‘expansionary effects’ of the economy.”  

There are also downsides, however. Verme noted: “We should also expect these positive effects to be accompanied by negative externalities and distributional effects that will negatively affect the most vulnerable groups among the hosts. In the short term, areas that suddenly become home to refugees may experience resource strain and environmental degradation, which can derail local development. In urban areas, the influx of refugees may lead to water and electricity shortages, causing higher costs for both the refugees and the host community, overcrowding of services such as health and education, increased traffic and pollution, and competition for jobs and housing. These factors can result in unemployment, a surge in inflation, create tension, and increase social and economic disparities.”

In the medium term, Verme added, “The negative distributional effects may become evident. While some locals may experience economic gains, others may be displaced or lose their jobs due to increased competition. These negative impacts are likely to affect the most vulnerable members of the community, including women, youth, low-skilled and informal workers, and those living in degraded and marginal areas.”

However, refugees can contribute to economic growth through entrepreneurship as some refugees start their businesses, creating jobs and contributing to economic dynamism. This entrepreneurial activity can have positive spillover effects on the local economy (Wauters, B., & Lambrecht, J. (2008). Barriers to refugee entrepreneurship in Belgium: Towards an explanatory model. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 34(6), 895-915.).

Furthermore, they bring diverse skills and human capital to host countries. While there may be barriers to utilising these skills fully, such as language and credential recognition, with proper support, refugees can contribute significantly to sectors facing skill shortages. (UNHCR (2013). The economic impact of refugees.).

Over the long term, the successful integration of refugees can lead to substantial economic benefits. Refugees can become productive members of society, contributing to the economy through work, innovation, and cultural diversity. (Aiyar, S., et al. (2016). The refugee surge in Europe: Economic challenges. IMF Staff Discussion Note.).

Political Impact Of Refugee Influx On Host Countries

Some of the refugees, with time, could acquire the culture and mannerisms of their host country and fake their identity as citizens. They could then take part in the national elections of the host country and become illegitimate kingmakers. If there are cultural and language similarities between their country of origin and the host, then it even becomes easier for them to fake citizenship in the latter. Such citizenship would entitle them to all the rights and privileges of the host country which could put a strain on limited resources and social amenities. Some internal politicians and political parties or external forces with an interest in the host country’s political affairs may hire some of these refugees for dubious, violent or criminal purposes.

Refugee influx can also lead to increased political polarisation within host countries. Political parties may exploit the issue to gain support, with some advocating humanitarian assistance and others pushing for stricter immigration controls. This polarisation can manifest in electoral politics, influencing the rise of far-right, nationalist, or anti-immigrant parties. (Bansak, K., Hainmueller, J., & Hangartner, D. (2016). How economic, humanitarian, and religious concerns shape European attitudes toward asylum seekers. Science, 354(6309), 217-222.)

Additionally, host countries often respond to refugee influxes by altering their immigration and asylum policies. These changes can include tightening border controls, increasing asylum processing resources, or developing integration programs. The specific policies adopted can significantly impact the political landscape, often reflecting broader ideological divides (Koser, K. (2010). Dimensions and dynamics of irregular migration. Population, Space and Place, 16(3), 181-193.)

Furthermore, the strain put on public services such as healthcare, education, and housing by the influx can lead to public dissatisfaction and can be leveraged by political actors to argue for or against refugee acceptance. (Ruiz, I., & Vargas-Silva, C. (2013). The economics of forced migration. The Journal of Development Studies, 49(6), 772-784.)

Politicians may also use security concerns to justify stricter immigration policies and increased security measures, influencing the national security agenda (Bove, V., & Böhmelt, T. (2016). Does immigration induce terrorism? The Journal of Politics, 78(2), 572-588.)

As well, the integration of refugees into the host society is a major political issue. While successful integration can lead to positive outcomes, failures can exacerbate social tensions and lead to segregation. Political leaders and parties often have differing views on how integration should be managed, influencing public policy and community relations. (Ager, A., & Strang, A. (2008). Understanding integration: A conceptual framework. Journal of Refugee Studies, 21(2), 166-191.)

Socio-cultural impact of refugee influx on host countries

Socio-culturally, refugees introduce new cultural practices, languages, cuisines, and traditions to host countries, enriching the cultural landscape. This cultural diversity can lead to greater cross-cultural understanding and tolerance, contributing to a more vibrant and multicultural society. (Berry, J. W. (1997). Immigration, acculturation, and adaptation. Applied Psychology, 46(1), 5-34.).

However, the integration of refugees into host communities can present challenges to social cohesion. Differences in language, religion, and cultural practices can create misunderstandings and tensions. Effective integration policies and community engagement are essential to mitigate these challenges and promote social harmony. (Ager, A., & Strang, A. (2008). Understanding integration: A conceptual framework. Journal of Refugee Studies, 21(2), 166-191.)

The arrival of refugees can, additionally, influence public perceptions and attitudes towards immigrants and minorities. While some segments of the population may respond with empathy and support, others may exhibit xenophobia or hostility, often influenced by political rhetoric and media portrayals. (Esses, V. M., Hamilton, L. K., & Gaucher, D. (2017). The global refugee crisis: Empirical evidence and policy implications for improving public attitudes and facilitating refugee resettlement. Social Issues and Policy Review, 11(1), 78-123.).

Further, the presence of refugees can affect intergroup relations, sometimes leading to conflict but also providing opportunities for reconciliation and solidarity. The nature of these interactions often depends on pre-existing social tensions, the economic context, and the policies implemented by the host country. (Putnam, R. D. (2007). E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and community in the twenty-first century. Scandinavian Political Studies, 30(2), 137-174.).

Moreover, refugee children and youth often face challenges in accessing education in host countries, such as language barriers, differing educational backgrounds, and trauma. Successfully integrating these children into the education system can lead to positive long-term socio-cultural impacts, including better social cohesion and economic contributions. (Dryden-Peterson, S. (2015). The educational experiences of refugee children in countries of first asylum. Migration Policy Institute.). In the long run, however, host communities that actively engage in supporting and integrating refugees often experience strengthened community resilience and solidarity. Grassroots movements, volunteer networks, and local initiatives play a crucial role in fostering a welcoming environment and promoting mutual understanding. (Spencer, S. (2006). Refugees and other new migrants: A review of the evidence on successful approaches to integration. COMPAS, University of Oxford.).